I know that watching electoral polls on a daily basis is something akin to watching minute-by-minute stock fluctuations, but I still found today’s SES Research polling disheartening. Their polling shows a slide to 15%, down five points from earlier in the week. It won’t be official until we see a sustained slide that exceeds the margin of error, but it would seem that the Liberals are snapping back some of the swing voters who flirted with the NDP.

Those voters are, thankfully, still a volatile bunch, and I will be surprised if we don’t see some movement in the NDP numbers before the end of the campaign. Layton’s facing a bit of an ugly story out of Alberta, as Malcolm Azania, a young black candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona, saw a decade-old Usenet message resurface. In the message, posted when he was in his teens, Azania accused jewish people of being ‘white supremacists’. The candidate apologized, and Layton demanded that he meet with jewish community leaders to mend fences.

Perhaps I’m being unfair, but Layton’s moderate response was a misstep. This story will generate rounds of press coverage, all negative for the NDP. The candidate is running in Edmonton-Strathcona in a distant third place; the riding was conclusively taken by the Alliance last election. He’s not an incumbent; he’s a rookie candidate in a pretty much unwinnable riding. There’s no strategic reason to keep him on the ballot. He should have offered his resignation, and Jack should have accepted it. If he had resigned, the political damage would have been limited to two unflatting stories: gaffe and resignation. Instead, it’s going to continue to make news and distract media attention from Jack’s message. In short, he’s a liability at a critical time, and needs to be dropped.

Anyways, I’m currently blogging from a Layton campaign event here in Montreal - more to come once I get back home.